My NFL Picks Week 3

After the debacle of week 1, I recovered pretty well in week 2. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. In other good football news, I won my games in two of the three fantasy leagues I’m in. Unfortunately, my loss in the other league was downright embarrassing.

Some of the picks for this week are a little harder than they appear, as many of the favored teams are on the road. It would be easy to pick the Lions over the Vikings if they weren’t playing in Minnesota. I still am going to make that pick, but it gives me some pause now. How about Atlanta at Tampa Bay? That is an easier pick in Atlanta. Or the Patriots at the Bills. The Bills have been good enough so far to get some consideration against the Patriots at home. Still, I’m not sure I want to pull the trigger on that upset.

Then there are the teams with QB issues. Will Vick play? Would I pick the Giants if he didn’t? Tough call. Assuming he plays, how effective will Romo be with a broken rib? Then there is Blaine Gabbert getting his first start against the Panthers. Will he be as effective as Newton and Dalton have been so far? All in all, there are plenty of deceptively hard picks this week.

  • Patriots at Bills. Patriots 34-31
  • 49ers at Bengals. 49ers 20-16
  • Dolphins at Browns. Browns 21-17
  • Broncos at Titans. Titans 24-21
  • Lions at Vikings. Detroit 34-24
  • Texans at Saints. Saints 31-20
  • Giants at Eagles. Eagles 27-21
  • Jaguars at Panthers. Jaguars 28-24
  • Jets at Raiders. Jets 17-10
  • Ravens at Rams. Ravens 27-17
  • Chiefs at Chargers. Chargers 31-10
  • Packers at Bears. Packers 30-24
  • Cardinals at Seahawks. Cardinals 27-14
  • Falcons at Buccaneers. Buccaneers 31-28
  • Steelers at Colts. Steelers 34-17
  • Redskins at Cowboys. Cowboys 27-21

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 20-12

Post Draft Thoughts

The Panthers have their man, and they deserve him. I do not expect much out of Cam Newton. Supposedly, the people running the Panthers know more than me, but we’ll see. As far as other first round quarterbacks go, the three pick from 8 to 12 in the first round were interesting. The Titans picked Jake Locker a little too high, but he might be the best QB in the draft. I would say he and Gabbert are close, but my personal bias leads me to give the edge to Gabbert. Locker would have been a top five pick had he come out last year, and I still think he could be a very successful Pro. I like him a lot. Washington was not a very good team while he was there, but he made them better. A year behind Kerry Collins and Locker should be ready to go.

I think the Jaguars picked Gabbert at about the right spot. He should have went somewhere between 10and 15. The importance of the position and the fact that he is likely the best at the position in the class had people projecting him too high, and to a team that flat-out said it did not intend to pick a QB in Arizona. People thought the Bills or Cards would take him, but I think the Bills made the right decision because Ryan Fitzpatrick was actually pretty good last year. Even if he is not the long-term answer, he is serviceable enough that they could use the draft to fix more glaring flaws, like their run defense. And the Cardinals have already proved they do not know jack crap about QBs. I know the luster had worn off Leinart, but was Derek Anderson really a better option last year. Anderson, outside of his fluke Pro-Bowl year, was a proven failure. Matt Leinart barely got a chance to fail. I think the Jaguars taking Gabbert is a good choice. They are going nowhere with Garrard at the helm. They made a mistake cutting Leftwich a few years ago. Now they can try to stay near .500 again on the strength of Jones-Drew’s running and hopefully find a competent receiver for Gabbert next year in the draft.

Then the Vikings reached out of their minds for Ponder at pick 12. I’m not a fan of Ponder. I think he was probably the 6th or 7th best QB in the draft, and would have been picked too high as the 12th pick of the 2nd round. The Vikings need a QB, but I do not think that Ponder was the right choice.

All four first round QBs have one thing going for them: the teams that picked them have good to great running games. The Panthers was terrible last year, but so were the Panthers in general. But the Vikings, Jaguars and Titans have maybe the three best running backs in the League.

As far as my team, the Colts had a solid draft, but it is very hard to get excited about Offensive Linemen. I say this as a former O-lineman. There is no duller position in any sport. But it should provide an immediate impact for the Colts offense. They’ve been good the last few (12) years, but the running game has disappeared. With a better O-line the stretch run might come back.

I also liked the 49ers and the Bengals. Again, with the Mizzou bias, I think Aldon Smith will be a star. He is big, athletic, and fast. He should be great. And Colin Kaepernick is interesting if anything but a sure thing. With Palmer and Chad Johnson on the way out in Cincy, it seems like they effectively replaced both. Andy Dalton is not exciting, but he seems dependable. And A.J. Green is exciting. While I’m sure the Bengals still want to keep Carson Palmer, I’m not sure if he can ever be as good as he was before his knee surgery. He was close last year though, and he looked much better without Ochocinco and Owens in the line-up.

Of course, it will all be for naught if the lockout doesn’t end. I hope that the Owner’s appeal fails and the lockout is lifted. Goodell’s recent Wall Street Journal op-ed piece shows just how scattered the Owner’s stance is. NFL players already have the worst deal among the Major sports, why should their position get weaker. It is blind, corrupt greed on the part of the league. I hope the players win.

Pre-Draft Thoughts

The NFL Draft starts tomorrow and I have important (only to me) thoughts to get out.  Cam Newton as the No. 1 draft pick is a ludicrous notion. It is almost stupid. If the Panther’s pick him, I predict a monumental bust. His ceiling as a QB is a bit north of Vince Young, who was also picked too high a few years ago. And the claims of racism in the pre-draft process are stupid. Tim Tebow has a similar skill set to Newton and he heard nothing except how he didn’t fit as a QB at the next level. He had no chance of being drafted as high as Newton will, and the Broncos reached on him as it is. In my expert opinion (I watched almost 4 Auburn games last year) Newton has no better chance of NFL success than Tebow does. In fact, I predict Tim Tebow will have a better pro career than Cam Newton will. Also, Newton has 1 year as a starter in college. That is usually not a good indicator.

Just because I am really down on Newton as a serious NFL prospect does not mean I think the Panthers should take the better QB No. 1. Blaine Gabbert is absolutely a better future QB than Newton, and I’m not just saying that because I’m a Mizzou fan. I do love Gabbert, and I believe he will and hope he does have a long, successful NFL career, but the Panthers drafted a QB pretty high last year, they should use the pick on another position. My love for Gabbert does not make me believe he is a sure success. He may say and do all the right things, but that does not always translate into success. Joey Harrington seemed to do and say all the right things and he still failed (though to be fair, the Lions). While Jimmy Clausen is not necessarily the answer at QB, I do not think he has had enough of an opportunity to prove himself yet. Go get him some help, draft the best player available and if he fails, pick a QB next year. There is sure to be an option that is as sure a bet as any QB in this draft.

Normally I’m much more excited about the NFL Draft, but with the lockout (currently in limbo), it is hard to get too excited. It could be more than a year before any of these players actually play. I wish the NFL owners would get their greedy heads out of their greedy asses and let us have football.

Also, while as a Mizzou fan I do wish Gabbert had returned for his senior year, because with him we are a dark horse National Title contender, I do not begrudge him jumping to the NFL. He’s most likely going to be a top 5 pick; I say strike while the iron is hot.