NFL Picks Week 9

Sorry for the lack of commentary, I’m doing NaNoWriMo and I have little time for blogging. Also, this will be a slow month on the blog in general. Picks:

Jets at Bills: Jets
Chiefs at Dolphins: Chiefs (I so want to pick Dolphins)
Seahawks at Cowboys: Cowboys
Falcons at Colts: Falcons
Buccanneers at Saints: Saints
49ers at Redskins: 49ers
Browns at Texans: Texans
Bengals at Titans: Bengals
Broncos at Raiders: Raiders
Giants at Patriots: Patriots
Rams at Cardinals: Rams
Packers at Chargers: Packers
Ravens at Steelers: Steelers
Bears at Eagles: Eagles

Last Week: 10-3
Season: 81-35

NFL Picks Week 8

My picks were awful last week, with me going 7-6. Some were obviously bad, like Titans over Texans, but some were complete surprises, like Jags over Ravens. Hopefully this is a blip on my otherwise solid prediction season.

This week is cowards week for me. I want to pick several upsets, but since I kind of want to pick so many, I am going to pick none. I want to pick the Colts over the Titans. Yeah, the Colt were Godawful last week, but they will win a game or two. I want to pick the Vikings over the Panthers, but despite some baffling hype Ponder was worse that McNabb has been all season. I want to ride the Tebow train over the Lions, but I think the Lions are legitimately too good. And I want to pick the Chiefs over the Chargers, but both of these teams are frauds. The Chiefs only beat the Raiders because they had the worst QB play I’ve seen in years and didn‘t have McFadden for most of the game. Palmer had a very good excuse, not knowing the playbook because he had been there all of 4 days; Boller was just sad. I think he played himself out of any sort of permanent roster spot. The Chargers are just as bad as the Chiefs. I still think the Raiders win that division, but he Chargers win this game.

Colts at Titans: Titans
Saints at Rams: Saints
Dolphins at Giants: Giants
Vikings at Panthers: Panthers
Cardinals at Ravens: Ravens
Jaguars at Texans: Texans
Redskins at Bills: Bills
Lions at Broncos: Lions
Patriots at Steelers: Steelers
Browns at 49ers: 49ers
Bengals at Seahawks: Bengals
Cowboys at Eagles: Eagles
Chargers at Chiefs: Chargers

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 71-32

NFL Week 6 Picks

No time for much commentary this week. Last week I was 9-4. Not my best week, but not an embarrassment. This Sunday is a day I have no confidence in my picks. I’m going to take the Eagles over the Redskins because the Eagles have too much talent to keep losing. If they do lose this week, I’m not sure I’ll pick them again. As much as I am a believer in the Bills, I’m taking the Giants over them. Because the Giants motto seems to be “fuck predictability” and after losing to the Seahawks I don’t think many are taking them over the Bills. I’m also taking the 49ers over the Lions. The Lions are going to lose eventually, and the 49ers have been really good so far.

Panthers at Falcons: Falcons
Colts at Bengals: Colts
49ers at Lions: 49ers
Rams at Packers: Packers
Bills at Giants: Giants
Jaguars at Steelers: Steelers
Eagles at Redskins: Eagles
Browns at Raiders: Raiders
Texans at Ravens: Ravens
Cowboys at Patriots: Patriots
Saints at Buccaneers: Saints
Vikings at Bears: Bears
Dolphins at Jets: Jets

Last Week: 9-4

Season: 53-24

NFL Week 5 Picks

I guess I was right about last week being an easy week to pick. I went 13-3. I missed the KC/Min game, but that one was a complete toss-up. I expected the Eagles to rebound after a couple of tough losses, but they blew it. And while I expected Buffalo to falter sooner or later, I didn’t think the Bengals had enough bite to beat them. Other than those three I was on the money.

Fantasy Football took a turn for the better last week as well. I won in 2 of my leagues and tied in the other. Which was the first FF tie I’ve ever seen; it occurred mostly because that leagues scoring system it straight up stupid. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.

This week coming up looks like one to give me fits. Lots of good teams playing good teams and bad teams playing bad teams. Some games that look interesting to me are Oakland at Houston, Kansas City as Indianapolis and the Monday Night game Chicago at Detroit. The Raider and Texans both have pretensions of being playoff teams. The Raiders especially need this game, and with Andre Johnson out I think they win it. Did the Chiefs turn a corner last week or did they beat a woeful Vikings team? The Colts have given two good teams a run the last couple week, I think they take the Chiefs at home. Even without Manning they can’t lose them all. Chicago really needs to beat Detroit to keep from falling into a big hole. Detroit has tried to give the last two games away. I don’t think Detroit has another comeback in them this week, but I’m not sure they’ll need it.

Philadelphia at Buffalo: Philadelphia
Kansas City at Indianapolis: Indianapolis
Arizona at Minnesota: Minnesota
Seattle at New York G: New York G
Tennessee at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh
New Orleans at Carolina: New Orleans
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Jacksonville
Oakland at Houston: Oakland
Tampa Bay at San Francisco: San Francisco
San Diego at Denver: San Diego
New York J at New England: New England
Green Bay at Atlanta: Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit: Detroit

Last Week: 13-3

Season 44-20

NFL Predictions Week 4

I am very angry with myself. Just before I posted last week’s NFL predictions, I changed my pick in the Pats/Bills game. Sure, I can’t prove it, but my first instinct was that the Bills would win. Then I remembered that the Bills never beat the Patriots, got cold feet and changed it. Also, I changed my pick in the Panthers/Jaguars game at the same time for good measure. That will teach me not to trust my gut. I would have had a great week instead a kinda good one.

Fantasy Football continues to be a disaster for me this year. Fortunately, Fantasy Football is a stupid game played only by morons so I don’t care. Also, I don’t want any grapes anyway, they look sour.

There aren’t quite as many tough games to pick this week. (Which probably means I’ll miss more) We might find out if Pitt or Houston is actually any good, or the same for Cleveland and Tennessee. Will a Missouri team win a game this week? Will Vick play? There are plenty of questions, as always, but I am more confident this week. Likely not a good sign, that.

Bears over Panthers 34-27.
Bills over Bengals 27-17.
Titans over Browns. 23-14.
Lions over Cowboys 30-22.
Vikings over Chiefs 24-13.
Redskins over Rams. 24-14.
Eagles over 49ers. 31-20.
Saints over Jaguars 30-24.
Houston over Steelers 27-20.
Giants over Cardinals. 28-23.
Falcons over Seahawks. 24-10.
Packers over Broncos. 27-17.
Patriots over Raiders 35-24
Chargers over Dolphins 21-20
Ravens over Jets. 20-17
Buccaneers over Colts 20-14


Last week: 11-5

Season: 31-17

My NFL Predictions Week 2

Ouch! So not only did I go only 8-8 on my week one picks, but the day after I predicted the Colts would play a home Super Bowl with Peyton missing a month or less, Peyton has neck surgery that is guaranteed to keep him off the field for at least half of the season. I believe I am well within my made up predicting rights to change my Super Bowl pick, but that is the path of pansies. I’m sticking with the Colts and a second half Peyton miracle. Why not? (Also, I’m changing my AFC Super Bowl pick to the Jets, in complete reversal of my previous thoughts.)

On to this week, in which I should see an improvement in my percentage. The first week is always a toss up; no one really knows who has it in any given year. Who saw the Chiefs playing that badly against the Bills? Or the Steelers terrible performance against the Ravens? Week 1 was weird, but it should give us some idea of what will happen in week 2. Here are my predictions:

  • Raiders v Bills:  Bills 27-20
  • Chiefs v Lions: Lions 31-21
  • Ravens v Titans: Ravens 31-13
  • Browns v Colts:  Colts 17-13
  • Buccaneers v Vikings: Vikings 24-21
  • Bears v Saints: Saints 34-31
  • Jaguars v Jets: Jets 24-7
  • Seahawks v Steelers: Steelers 28-14
  • Cardinals v Redskins: Cardinals 31-28
  • Packers v Panthers: Packers 35-13
  • Cowboys v 49ers: Cowboys 24-20
  • Bengals v Broncos: Broncos 23-17
  • Texans v Dolphins: Texans 34-27
  • Chargers v Patriots: Patriots 31-24
  • Eagles v Falcons: Falcons 28-24
  • Rams v Giants: Giants 28-24
Last week: 8-8.
Total 8-8

Post Draft Thoughts

The Panthers have their man, and they deserve him. I do not expect much out of Cam Newton. Supposedly, the people running the Panthers know more than me, but we’ll see. As far as other first round quarterbacks go, the three pick from 8 to 12 in the first round were interesting. The Titans picked Jake Locker a little too high, but he might be the best QB in the draft. I would say he and Gabbert are close, but my personal bias leads me to give the edge to Gabbert. Locker would have been a top five pick had he come out last year, and I still think he could be a very successful Pro. I like him a lot. Washington was not a very good team while he was there, but he made them better. A year behind Kerry Collins and Locker should be ready to go.

I think the Jaguars picked Gabbert at about the right spot. He should have went somewhere between 10and 15. The importance of the position and the fact that he is likely the best at the position in the class had people projecting him too high, and to a team that flat-out said it did not intend to pick a QB in Arizona. People thought the Bills or Cards would take him, but I think the Bills made the right decision because Ryan Fitzpatrick was actually pretty good last year. Even if he is not the long-term answer, he is serviceable enough that they could use the draft to fix more glaring flaws, like their run defense. And the Cardinals have already proved they do not know jack crap about QBs. I know the luster had worn off Leinart, but was Derek Anderson really a better option last year. Anderson, outside of his fluke Pro-Bowl year, was a proven failure. Matt Leinart barely got a chance to fail. I think the Jaguars taking Gabbert is a good choice. They are going nowhere with Garrard at the helm. They made a mistake cutting Leftwich a few years ago. Now they can try to stay near .500 again on the strength of Jones-Drew’s running and hopefully find a competent receiver for Gabbert next year in the draft.

Then the Vikings reached out of their minds for Ponder at pick 12. I’m not a fan of Ponder. I think he was probably the 6th or 7th best QB in the draft, and would have been picked too high as the 12th pick of the 2nd round. The Vikings need a QB, but I do not think that Ponder was the right choice.

All four first round QBs have one thing going for them: the teams that picked them have good to great running games. The Panthers was terrible last year, but so were the Panthers in general. But the Vikings, Jaguars and Titans have maybe the three best running backs in the League.

As far as my team, the Colts had a solid draft, but it is very hard to get excited about Offensive Linemen. I say this as a former O-lineman. There is no duller position in any sport. But it should provide an immediate impact for the Colts offense. They’ve been good the last few (12) years, but the running game has disappeared. With a better O-line the stretch run might come back.

I also liked the 49ers and the Bengals. Again, with the Mizzou bias, I think Aldon Smith will be a star. He is big, athletic, and fast. He should be great. And Colin Kaepernick is interesting if anything but a sure thing. With Palmer and Chad Johnson on the way out in Cincy, it seems like they effectively replaced both. Andy Dalton is not exciting, but he seems dependable. And A.J. Green is exciting. While I’m sure the Bengals still want to keep Carson Palmer, I’m not sure if he can ever be as good as he was before his knee surgery. He was close last year though, and he looked much better without Ochocinco and Owens in the line-up.

Of course, it will all be for naught if the lockout doesn’t end. I hope that the Owner’s appeal fails and the lockout is lifted. Goodell’s recent Wall Street Journal op-ed piece shows just how scattered the Owner’s stance is. NFL players already have the worst deal among the Major sports, why should their position get weaker. It is blind, corrupt greed on the part of the league. I hope the players win.

Pre-Draft Thoughts

The NFL Draft starts tomorrow and I have important (only to me) thoughts to get out.  Cam Newton as the No. 1 draft pick is a ludicrous notion. It is almost stupid. If the Panther’s pick him, I predict a monumental bust. His ceiling as a QB is a bit north of Vince Young, who was also picked too high a few years ago. And the claims of racism in the pre-draft process are stupid. Tim Tebow has a similar skill set to Newton and he heard nothing except how he didn’t fit as a QB at the next level. He had no chance of being drafted as high as Newton will, and the Broncos reached on him as it is. In my expert opinion (I watched almost 4 Auburn games last year) Newton has no better chance of NFL success than Tebow does. In fact, I predict Tim Tebow will have a better pro career than Cam Newton will. Also, Newton has 1 year as a starter in college. That is usually not a good indicator.

Just because I am really down on Newton as a serious NFL prospect does not mean I think the Panthers should take the better QB No. 1. Blaine Gabbert is absolutely a better future QB than Newton, and I’m not just saying that because I’m a Mizzou fan. I do love Gabbert, and I believe he will and hope he does have a long, successful NFL career, but the Panthers drafted a QB pretty high last year, they should use the pick on another position. My love for Gabbert does not make me believe he is a sure success. He may say and do all the right things, but that does not always translate into success. Joey Harrington seemed to do and say all the right things and he still failed (though to be fair, the Lions). While Jimmy Clausen is not necessarily the answer at QB, I do not think he has had enough of an opportunity to prove himself yet. Go get him some help, draft the best player available and if he fails, pick a QB next year. There is sure to be an option that is as sure a bet as any QB in this draft.

Normally I’m much more excited about the NFL Draft, but with the lockout (currently in limbo), it is hard to get too excited. It could be more than a year before any of these players actually play. I wish the NFL owners would get their greedy heads out of their greedy asses and let us have football.

Also, while as a Mizzou fan I do wish Gabbert had returned for his senior year, because with him we are a dark horse National Title contender, I do not begrudge him jumping to the NFL. He’s most likely going to be a top 5 pick; I say strike while the iron is hot.